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- Predicting 30-day mortality in severely injured elderly patients with trauma in Korea using machine learning algorithms: a retrospective study
- Jonghee Han, Su Young Yoon, Junepill Seok, Jin Young Lee, Jin Suk Lee, Jin Bong Ye, Younghoon Sul, Se Heon Kim, Hong Rye Kim
- Received April 22, 2024 Accepted May 29, 2024 Published online August 8, 2024
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.20408/jti.2024.0024 [Epub ahead of print]
- 189 View
- 6 Download
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Abstract
PDF - Purpose
The number of elderly patients with trauma is increasing; therefore, precise models are necessary to estimate the mortality risk of elderly patients with trauma for informed clinical decision-making. This study aimed to develop machine learning based predictive models that predict 30-day mortality in severely injured elderly patients with trauma and to compare the predictive performance of various machine learning models.
Methods
This study targeted patients aged ≥65 years with an Injury Severity Score of ≥15 who visited the regional trauma center at Chungbuk National University Hospital between 2016 and 2022. Four machine learning models—logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—were developed to predict 30-day mortality. The models’ performance was compared using metrics such as area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, precision, recall, specificity, F1 score, as well as Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) values and learning curves.
Results
The performance evaluation of the machine learning models for predicting mortality in severely injured elderly patients with trauma showed AUC values for logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and XGBoost of 0.938, 0.863, 0.919, and 0.934, respectively. Among the four models, XGBoost demonstrated superior accuracy, precision, recall, specificity, and F1 score of 0.91, 0.72, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.78, respectively. Analysis of important features of XGBoost using SHAP revealed associations such as a high Glasgow Coma Scale negatively impacting mortality probability, while higher counts of transfused red blood cells were positively correlated with mortality probability. The learning curves indicated increased generalization and robustness as training examples increased.
Conclusions
We showed that machine learning models, especially XGBoost, can be used to predict 30-day mortality in severely injured elderly patients with trauma. Prognostic tools utilizing these models are helpful for physicians to evaluate the risk of mortality in elderly patients with severe trauma. -
Summary
- Validation of chest trauma scoring systems in polytrauma: a retrospective study with 1,038 patients in Korea
- Hongrye Kim, Mou Seop Lee, Su Young Yoon, Jonghee Han, Jin Young Lee, Junepill Seok
- J Trauma Inj. 2024;37(2):114-123. Published online May 9, 2024
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.20408/jti.2023.0087
- 1,354 View
- 52 Download
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Abstract
PDF
Supplementary Material - Purpose
Appropriate scoring systems can help classify and treat polytrauma patients. This study aimed to validate chest trauma scoring systems in polytrauma patients.
Methods
Data from 1,038 polytrauma patients were analyzed. The primary outcomes were one or more complications: pneumonia, chest complications requiring surgery, and mortality. The Thoracic Trauma Severity Score (TTSS), Chest Trauma Score, Rib Fracture Score, and RibScore were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis in patients with or without head trauma.
Results
In total, 1,038 patients were divided into two groups: those with complications (822 patients, 79.2%) and those with no complications (216 patients, 20.8%). Sex and body mass index did not significantly differ between the groups. However, age was higher in the complications group (64.1±17.5 years vs. 54.9±17.6 years, P<0.001). The proportion of head trauma patients was higher (58.3% vs. 24.6%, P<0.001) and the Glasgow Coma Scale score was worse (median [interquartile range], 12 [6.5–15] vs. 15 [14–15]; P<0.001) in the complications group. The number of rib fractures, the degree of rib fracture displacement, and the severity of pulmonary contusions were also higher in the complications group. In the area under the ROC curve analysis, the TTSS showed the highest predictive value for the entire group (0.731), head trauma group (0.715), and no head trauma group (0.730), while RibScore had the poorest performance (0.643, 0.622, and 0.622, respectively)
Conclusions
Early injury severity detection and grading are crucial for patients with blunt chest trauma. The chest trauma scoring systems introduced to date, including the TTSS, are not acceptable for clinical use, especially in polytrauma patients with traumatic brain injury. Therefore, further revisions and analyses of chest trauma scoring systems are recommended. -
SummaryCase Report
- Surgical management of supratentorial and infratentorial epidural hematoma in Korea: three case reports
- Su Young Yoon, Junepill Seok, Yook Kim, Jin Suk Lee, Jin Young Lee, Mou Seop Lee, Hong Rye Kim
- J Trauma Inj. 2023;36(4):399-403. Published online December 26, 2023
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.20408/jti.2023.0073
- 1,242 View
- 66 Download
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Abstract
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- Supratentorial and infratentorial epidural hematoma (SIEDH) is a rare but life-threatening complication following traumatic brain injury. However, the literature on SIEDH is sparse, consisting only of a few small series. Prompt diagnosis and the application of appropriate surgical techniques are crucial for the rapid and safe management of SIEDH. Herein, we present three cases of SIEDH treated at our institution, employing a range of surgical approaches.
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SummaryOriginal Article
- Clinical characteristics and mortality risk factors among trauma patients by age groups at a single center in Korea over 7 years: a retrospective study
- Jonghee Han, Su Young Yoon, Junepill Seok, Jin Young Lee, Jin Suk Lee, Jin Bong Ye, Younghoon Sul, Seheon Kim, Hong Rye Kim
- J Trauma Inj. 2023;36(4):329-336. Published online November 7, 2023
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.20408/jti.2023.0035
- 1,270 View
- 57 Download
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Abstract
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- Purpose
In this study, we aimed to compare the characteristics of patients with trauma by age group in a single center in Korea to identify the clinical characteristics and analyze the risk factors affecting mortality.
Methods
Patients aged ≥18 years who visited the Chungbuk National University Hospital Regional Trauma Center between January 2016 and December 2022 were included. The accident mechanism, severity of the injury, and outcomes were compared by classifying the patients into group A (18–64 years), group B (65–79 years), and group C (≥80 years). In addition, logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors affecting death.
Results
The most common injury mechanism was traffic accidents in group A (40.9%) and slipping in group B (37.0%) and group C (56.2%). Although group A had the highest intensive care unit admission rate (38.0%), group C had the highest mortality rate (9.5%). In the regression analysis, 3 to 8 points on the Glasgow Coma Scale had the highest odds ratio for mortality, and red blood cell transfusion within 24 hours, intensive care unit admission, age, and Injury Severity Score were the predictors of death.
Conclusions
For patients with trauma, the mechanism, injured body region, and severity of injury differed among the age groups. The high mortality rate of elderly patients suggests the need for different treatment approaches for trauma patients according to age. Identifying factors affecting clinical patterns and mortality according to age groups can help improve the prognosis of trauma patients in the future. -
SummaryCase ReportsTOP
- Chest Wall Reconstruction for the Treatment of Lung Herniation and Respiratory Failure 1 Month after Emergency Thoracotomy in a Patient with Traumatic Flail Chest
- Junepill Seok, Il Jae Wang
- J Trauma Inj. 2021;34(4):284-287. Published online August 31, 2021
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.20408/jti.2020.0059
- 8,480 View
- 99 Download
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Abstract
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We report a case of delayed chest wall reconstruction after thoracotomy. A 53-year-old female, a victim of a motor vehicle accident, presented with bilateral multiple rib fractures with flail motion and multiple extrathoracic injuries. Whole-body computed tomography revealed multiple fractures of the bilateral ribs, clavicle, and scapula, and bilateral hemopneumothorax with severe lung contusions. Active hemorrhage was also found in the anterior pelvis, which was treated by angioembolization. The patient was transferred to the surgical intensive care unit for follow-up. We planned to perform surgical stabilization of rib fractures (SSRF) because her lung condition did not seem favorable for general anesthesia. Within a few hours, however, massive hemorrhage (presumably due to coagulopathy) drained through the thoracic drainage catheter. We performed an exploratory thoracotomy in the operating room. We initially planned to perform exploratory thoracotomy and “on the way out” SSRF. In the operating room, the hemorrhage was controlled; however, her condition deteriorated and SSRF could not be completed. SSRF was completed after about a month owing to other medical conditions, and the patient was weaned successfully.
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Summary
- Iatrogenic Delayed Aortic Injury Following a Surgical Stabilization of Flail Chest
- Junepill Seok, Hyun Min Cho, Seon Hee Kim, Ho Hyun Kim
- J Trauma Inj. 2018;31(3):174-176. Published online December 31, 2018
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.20408/jti.2018.037
- 3,161 View
- 44 Download
- 1 Citations
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Abstract
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Most of aortic injuries after blunt chest trauma usually occur at the aortic isthmus and are identified in the emergency department soon after arrival. Delayed aortic injures by fractured posterior ribs, however, are relatively rare and have been reported only a few times. We recently experienced an iatrogenic descending aortic injury sustained as a result of a direct puncture by a sharp rib end after surgical stabilization of rib fractures.
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Summary
Citations
Citations to this article as recorded by
- Surgical Stabilisation of Traumatic Rib Fractures with Chronic, Residual Type A Aortic Dissection
Kieran J. Matic, Rajkumar Cheluvappa, Selwyn Selvendran
Healthcare.2021; 9(4): 392. CrossRef
Original Article- Clinical Analysis of the Patients with Isolated Low-Velocity Penetrating Neck Injury
- Junepill Seok, Hyun Min Cho
- J Trauma Inj. 2018;31(1):1-5. Published online April 30, 2018
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.20408/jti.2018.31.1.1
- 3,964 View
- 76 Download
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Abstract
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Purpose Although there has been substantial progress for the treatment of thoracic trauma, the mortality of the penetrating neck injury is still high, has been reported about 10?15%. However, there has not been a report which is reflecting Korean medical present. We retrospectively analyzed the penetrating neck injury patients based on the Korean Trauma Data Base.
Methods Between December 2013 and June 2017 at the trauma center of the Pusan National University Hospital, Busan, Korea, total of 36 patients with isolated low-velocity penetrating neck injuries were included. We analyzed the patients’ age, gender, injury mechanism and causes by medical chart review.
Results Among total of 36 patients, 26 (72.2%) were male and 10 (27.8%) were female. Homicidal neck injuries were most common, followed by accidental and suicidal injuries (47% vs. 33% vs. 19%, respectively). All penetrating injuries in our study were low-velocity trauma such as following: knife (n=16, 44.4%); glass or glass bottle (n=11, 30.6%); scissors (n=4, 11.1%); grinder (n=2, 5.6%); and three (8.3%) of miscellaneous injuries. Twenty-seven (75.0%) patients underwent emergency surgery, and only one (2.8%) patient underwent elective surgery. Eleven (30.6) patients were diagnosed with superficial injuries, including six patients who had conservative treatment. Twelve (33.3%) patients had arterial injuries and 10 (27.8%) patients had venous injuries. The patients who had deep injuries showed significant difference against the patient with superficial injury (98.0 vs. 129.1,
p =0.008).Conclusions Low velocity penetrating injury confined to the neck is able to be successfully treated with prompt surgical management. Regardless of the conditions which are evaluated at emergency department, all penetrating neck injury patients should be regarded as urgent surgical candidates.
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